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香港理工大学何岱海副教授学术报告通知
发布时间 : 2023-05-22     点击量:

报告题目:Resolving the enigma of Iquitos and Manaus: A modeling analysis of multiple COVID-19 epidemic waves in two Amazonian cities

报告人:何岱海,香港理工大学

报告地点:数学楼2-3

报告时间:202352515:00- 1600


报告摘要:The nearby cities of Iquitos (Peru) and Manaus (Brazil) experienced the world’s highest infection and mortality rates during the first COVID-19 wave in 2020. Key studies suggested that >70% of the city populations were infected in this wave and thus close to herd immunity and protected. It remains an enigma as to why a deadly second wave followed in Manaus worse than the first. To resolve this, we present a data-driven model of epidemic dynamics in Iquitos which we use to help explain and model events in Manaus. The partially observed Markov process model simultaneous fits a flexible “variable R0”, estimates long-term immunity waning and impulsive immune evasion, and thus provides a comprehensive framework for characterizing and modeling new variants of concern.

何岱海副教授简介:何岱海,副教授,博士生导师,就职于香港理工大学应用数学系,于1999年获gg999策略手机白菜工学博士学位,2006年获加拿大麦克马斯大学数学博士学位。曾在北京师范大学物理系、美国密西根大学生态学系、以色列特拉雄夫大学动物学系做博士后研究。主要研究兴趣是传染病建模和数据统计分析,在PNAS, Sci Adv, Ann Intern, Eur Respir J, J R Soc Interface等权威期刊发表论文140余篇,研究成果受到国内外媒体的广泛报道。其关于非洲安哥拉黄热病的建模获2018年国际疾病监测学会的科学贡献最佳论文第二名,并先后获得香港研究资助局项目、香港食品与卫生环境署健康与医疗项目、阿里巴巴合作研究基金等多项基金资助。


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